Tag Archives: system dynamics.

754–767 T. Horschig, E. Billig and D. Thrän,
Model-based estimation of market potential for Bio-SNG in the German biomethane market until 2030 within a system dynamics approach
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Model-based estimation of market potential for Bio-SNG in the German biomethane market until 2030 within a system dynamics approach

T. Horschig¹*, E. Billig² and D. Thrän¹,²

¹DBFZ – Deutsches BiomasseForschungszentrum gGmbH, Department of Bioenergysystems, Torgauer Straße 116, DE 04347 Leipzig, Germany
²UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Bioenergysystems, Permoserstraße 15, DE 04347 Leipzig, Germany
*Correspondence: thomas.horschig@dbfz.de

Abstract:

 One option for energy provision from renewables is the production and grid injection of synthetic natural gas from lignin-rich biomass like wood and straw. Bio-SNG (biological produced synthetic/substitute natural gas) is the product of the thermochemical production of methane via gasification and methanation of lignin-rich biomass. The first commercial bio-SNG plant went successfully into operation in the end of 2014, in Gothenburg (Sweden). Regarding the huge potential of lignin-rich biomass bio-SNG is expected to have a high potential for a sustainable and greenhouse gas reducing contribution in power, heat and fuel markets. Being a future technology with great advantages like storability and transportability within a gas grid but recently too high prices for market implementation, possible future market shares are uncertain because bio-SNG has to compete with anaerobic biomethane as well as fossil alternatives. With the combination of an extensive techno-economic evaluation for present and future costs of bio-SNG depending on the feedstock supply chain and economy of scale, Delphi-Survey and a quantitative market simulation we determined future market shares for biomethane and bio-SNG for Germany under varying scenarios like incentive schemes, economy of scale and feedstock prices. Results indicate that substantial governmental support in terms of either R&D effort to lower bio-SNG prices or direct subsidies for a further capacity development is necessary to achieve significant market shares for biogenic methane.

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464-476 E. Dace and I. Muizniece
Modeling greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector – the case of Latvia
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Modeling greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector – the case of Latvia

E. Dace* and I. Muizniece

Riga Technical University, Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Azenes street 12/1, LV1048 Riga, Latvia; *Correspondence: elina.dace@rtu.lv

Abstract:

A system dynamics model for assessing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forestry and forest land is presented in the paper. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines for national GHG inventories and includes the main elements of the forestry sector, i.e. changes in the living biomass, dead organic matter and soils. The developed model allows simulating various policies and measures implemented and decisions made, and their impact on change in the GHG emissions. Various scenarios of potential development in the medium-term planning were simulated till 2030 to assess their impact on the GHG emissions. It is found that the most sustainable option would be use of wood processing waste for production of e.g. wood chips or some added-value products. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as forests compose about 52% of the country’s area. Nevertheless, by changing specific parametric values the model can be adapted and applied for estimation and analysis of GHG emissions from forestry in other countries, as well.

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391-404 J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, A. Blumberga, D. Blumberga and Dz. Slišāne
Application of system dynamic model for the composting of petroleum contaminated soil under various policies
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Application of system dynamic model for the composting of petroleum contaminated soil under various policies

J. Vilgerts, L. Timma*, A. Blumberga, D. Blumberga and Dz. Slišāne

Riga Technical University, Institute of Environment and Energy Systems,Kronvalda bulvāris ¹, LV-¹0¹0 Riga, Latvia;
*Correspondence: lelde.timma@rtu.lv

Abstract:

In this paper the dynamic model for the composting of contaminated soils withpetroleum products is presented. The main objectives of this study is to gain a deeperunderstanding about the dynamic relations between composting process and demand in themarket and to determine how different policies will influence the model and therefore the totalamount of recycled contaminated soil. The methodology applied consists of a system dynamicmodel, which describes the relationships between the cause and effect in complex and dynamicsystems that have delays, feedbacks and non-linearities. The developed model passed both thebehaviour validity and the tests of behavioural sensitivity. The validation indicated that themodel is capable of generating ‘the right behaviour for the right reasons’. This paper shows theresults of four various policies (including reference scenario) and sensitivity analysis. Theresults of the research indicate that the most sensitive parameter is the volume available forcomposting, which is the main factor that influences the amount of recycled material.

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