Adapting agriculture to climate shifts: managing crop water needs for environmental resilience in Sindh, Pakistan
¹Associated Consulting Engineers (ACE) Limited, D-288, KDA Scheme No.1, Stadium Road, PAK75350 Karachi, Pakistan
²Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Department of Civil Engineering, Main University Road, PAK75300 Karachi, Pakistan
³Interdisciplinary Research Centre for Membranes and Water Security, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, SA31261 Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
⁴NED University of Engineering and Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, University Road, PAK75270 Karachi, Pakistan
⁵Eco Hydrology Technology Research Centre (Eco-Hytech), Faculty of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, MY86400 Parit Raja, Malaysia
⁶Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, MY32610 Seri Iskandar, Malaysia
⁷Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Malaysia, MY43500 Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia”
*Correspondence:harisuddinq@gmail.com; fangyenn.teo@nottingham.edu.my
Abstract:
Sindh is an important hub for the agricultural production in Pakistan. Therefore, this study was aimed to model the air temperature trend in Sindh and its impacts on the seasonal water requirement for Rice, Wheat, and Sugarcane under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In this study, RegCM4 with GFDL-ESM2M was used and the bias correction of RegCM4 simulations was done using Quantile Mapping. As per the analysis, the average annual temperature over the study area may rise by about 1.2 to 1.8 °C and 2.8 to 3.3 °C under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. Seasonally, warming is expected to be higher in spring and winter seasons, whereas, diurnally, the daytime temperature may increase by about 1.2 to 1.7 °C and 2.6 to 3.2 °C, while the nighttime temperature may rise by about 1.4 to 2.7 °C and 3.0 to 3.5 °C under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. Consequentially, the seasonal water requirement for Rice in Sindh may increase by about 50–100 mm and 100–200 mm under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. For Wheat, the water requirement may rise by about 60 mm and 100 mm, whereas for Sugarcane, it may soar by about 100–150 mm and 150–200 mm under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. Conclusively, the rising crop water consumption may cause increased irrigation requirements, low crop water productivity and yield, and rising local water disputes thereby endangering the crop production and water security in the province.
Key words:
climate change, CORDEX, crop water requirement, CROPWAT, food security, quantile mapping, RegCM4, SDG 13