Deterministic and probabilistic assessment of nitrate exposure from selected fruits and vegetables consumption in Armenia
Center for Ecological-Noosphere Studies NAS RA, Abovian Str. 68, AM0025 Yerevan, Armenia
*Correspondence: astghik.hovhannisyan@cens.am
Abstract:
This study aimed to evaluate dietary exposure to nitrate via consumption of popular fruits and vegetables produced in Armenia. The analytical data for a total of 158 fruits and vegetables were taken from the National Residue Monitoring Program’s data of 2021. To assess nitrate exposure, two scenarios were implemented using: 1) the National Household survey data related to consumption rates of investigated fruits and vegetables, and 2) existing individual-based consumption data for the portion. To characterize risks of daily intake of nitrates, the deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulation via @RISK software) approaches were considered. According to deterministic assessment under both scenarios, daily intake of nitrates via the examined fruits and vegetables did not exceed the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI), as well as the Hazard Quotient (HQ < 1) and Hazard Index (HI < 1). This research has indicated that for adult consumers, out of all the examined fruits and vegetables, peaches, apples, and potatoes are the major contributors to nitrate exposure 18%, 14%, and 13%, respectively. No leafy vegetables and other sources (soil, water, meat products) were included in this research. Nevertheless, the Probability of Exceedance (POE) of ADI was 0.02% for the daily intake on an individual basis, simulating the probability of exposure to nitrates. This research provides the relevant data on nitrates in regionally grown and consumed fruits and vegetables. The findings of this research provide a solid scientific foundation for national authorities to make evidence-based decisions in making targeted monitoring plans to control nitrate concentration.
Key words:
daily intake, fruits, health risk, Monte Carlo simulation, nitrates, vegetables